May 31—Final approach; A lot going on

Background: Notes here on our Google Earth tracking of Jacob Adoram

                                 Index of Google Earth overlays.  Download the KLM file.

We are updating frequently now, so best to download the KML file and update your Google Earth.

Jacob had been holding back waiting for better forecast before completing the last leg of his voyage, up to Flora Pass (160 nmi), though the Great Barrier Reef and on into Cairns. A total run of about 185 nmi.

That better forecast did not show up, so he has taken off now, with hopes of getting there before the worst of it. The video below goes over the route and mentions our study of the wind forecasts at

http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2019/05/tools-for-crucial-weather-routing.html

It is an interesting ongoing study of the models, hoping to learn which one was most successful in this difficult to forecast atmosphere.

Not mentioned in the video is our concurrent study of the scatterometer wind data from ASCAT and WindSAT. We look for cases where they are close passes and see if they read the same winds.  This is long overdue. If the WindSat data are reliable, this is another large set of real wind measurements sailors can use.

See http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2019/05/compare-ascat-and-windsat-scatterometer.html

We have half a dozen new samples that we will add on Friday May 31.

He is close enough now to look ahead to actual wx forecasts at Cairns, sort of equivalent to our VHF weather. Here is the latest report:

Weather Situation

A high [1035 hPa] over the Great Australian Bight extend a strengthening ridge along far northern Queensland waters with fresh to strong southeasterly winds developing.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Cairns Coast

Winds

Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots south of Cairns in the late afternoon and evening. Lighter southerly winds inshore south of Innisfail in the late morning.

Seas

1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres south of Innisfail by early evening.

Swell

East to northeasterly around 1 metre outside the reef.

Weather

Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Saturday 1 June

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Cairns Coast

Winds

South to southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots inshore north of Innisfail.

Seas

1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres outside the reef.

Swell

Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres outside the reef.

Weather

Cloudy. 95% chance of showers.

Sunday 2 June

Winds

South to southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots at times north of Cairns.

Seas

1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres outside the reef.

Swell

Easterly 1 to 2 metres outside the reef, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.

Weather

Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

So we see there are indeed strong winds forecasted for the moment. He would be there now on about June 3.

You can read the latest report online at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cairns-coast.shtml