May 12 -— A Brush with a Tropical Storm

Background: Notes here on our Google Earth tracking of Jacob Adoram

                                 Index of Google Earth overlays.  Download the KLM file.

Main news is the loose cannon Low that has been in and out of the picture is back in and just 90 nmi to the SE of Jacob with winds of 50+ kts, but it seems that is the closest it will get.  For now he can take advantage of the strong N winds behind it as it moves west to make good progress to the south.

We see favorable currents on the horizon, which he might be able to reach.

An ASCAT pass shows real wind speeds. Purple is 50+. This storm is moving quickly to the west, toward about 290 T.  It had come down from the north, then stopped, then turned and went West.  It was first forecasted to cross the rhumbline and keep going to the southeast. Then it was forecasted to dissipate at the rhumbline, then a day or so ago the track got better... but the wind speed forecasts did not.

Compare that to the GFS forecasts below of 30 kts. This and other issues are discussed in the video link below.