Apr 30 — Good progress but challenges ahead

Background: Notes here on our Google Earth tracking of Jacob Adoram

Index of Google Earth overlays.  Download the KLM file.

Jacob is trucking along making good almost 2 kts,  and doing a great job of making progress on the rhumb line with a strong wind on the beam.  This is very hard work.

He has been stopped periodically with stronger wind from squalls and we can indeed see these forecasted with the FV3 GFS simulated radar forecasts, illustrated in the video below.

With strong wind to the west and west northwest over the next few days, his challenge is to stay south and pass the Indispensable Reef to the south if at all possible.  Going north of the Reef risks getting close to the oil leaking tanker on Rennell Island. Any unlucky encounter with a patch of loose oil could ruin his water maker and the voyage.

On the horizon, meaning tomorrow or the next day, he might see a big lift from the current according to the RTOFS forecasts.  This will be interesting confirmation of the model if it pans out.  The enhanced current does not show up on OSCAR data.

Read about the oil leak in NYT. The wreck was in early Feb.

This is the RTOFS forecast for 1.5 + kt current ride starting tomorrow... if it is really there.


Here is a video demo of the above points and more...