Apr 30 — Good progress but challenges ahead

Background: Notes here on our Google Earth tracking of Jacob Adoram

Index of Google Earth overlays.  Download the KLM file.

Jacob is trucking along making good almost 2 kts,  and doing a great job of making progress on the rhumb line with a strong wind on the beam.  This is very hard work.

He has been stopped periodically with stronger wind from squalls and we can indeed see these forecasted with the FV3 GFS simulated radar forecasts, illustrated in the video below.

With strong wind to the west and west northwest over the next few days, his challenge is to stay south and pass the Indispensable Reef to the south if at all possible.  Going north of the Reef risks getting close to the oil leaking tanker on Rennell Island. Any unlucky encounter with a patch of loose oil could ruin his water maker and the voyage.

On the horizon, meaning tomorrow or the next day, he might see a big lift from the current according to the RTOFS forecasts.  This will be interesting confirmation of the model if it pans out.  The enhanced current does not show up on OSCAR data.

Read about the oil leak in NYT. The wreck was in early Feb.

This is the RTOFS forecast for 1.5 + kt current ride starting tomorrow... if it is really there.


Here is a video demo of the above points and more...

Apr 20 — Progress slowly picking up as Tikopia hauls into view

Progress has been slow for a couple weeks, but now looking more promising.  Making steady progress to the south where needed winds should fill in by middle of next week.

Tikopia on the horizon. See related info and videos

We have updated the KML file with new currents and expanded the ASCAT coverage to reach to Cairns.  Download the latest KML to import to Google earth at this link.

JACOB-DATA.kml

Currents not favorable, but not too harmful, being about 0.5 or less to the S-SE.

We see fresh wind on the horizon at about 10º S, which is consistent with COGOW climatic data, which is also now in the KML overlays.

Check out Jacob's website for interesting news from him directly, often with a photo attached.

Here is a video look at the data along with meteograms showing that winds should pick up next week.

Apr 2 — Slow progress to the south

A reminder about the index to the overlays

Still no wind and no favorable currents, but Jacob is working his way to the south.

We updated the current models today, both are unfavorable, 0.5 to 0.7 to the East or SouthEast.  Wind still variable, under 10 kts.

We added climatic wind data to the Google Earth overlay that shows average winds every two weeks for the next 8 weeks, sample below.

To see these new data  you will need to update your KML file at this link

http://www.starpath.com/jacob/JACOB-DATA.kml

In the video below you will see that the average winds turn toward the west at the end of the month, so he might be glad he is father south by end of the month!

Note that for the past 10 days or so he has not got any closer to Cairns, but has made some valuable progress to the south.

We also discuss the value of the squall forecasting using simulated radar reflectivity available in the new FV3 GFS, which we access using LuckGrib.