Mar 26 — Couple steps forward; couple steps back

Here are the meteograms, not moving and moving at 1.5 kts on the rhumbline. Not much optimistic on the near horizon. It is a big boat that needs some help from wind and current, which are both working against him now.

Bottom image is if he can get south some by Friday he picks up a bit of northerly wind, else just stays light.

Here is a video report

I note here an average pressure drop of 1008 to 1004, which we can pull out of the oscillating daily pressure. I will check now how that compares with our reported statistical analysis of tropical pressures.  In this region and time the mean pressure is 1010—must have been a day or so ago that the drop started—and the standard deviation (SD) is 2.8 mb.  So this drop is 1.4 SD, but we have to note that this took place over 3 days and that is the difference.  Had this drop occurred in one day, that would have been a positive sign of a tropical storm.

In this case, this is the result of a weak low forming to the S-SE of Jacob, and is not a sign of anything more than that... and indeed there is no TS anywhere near him.  winds around that Low are less than 15 kts.... it is, however, a case that had there been more instability in the air it could have formed a TS. the winds are indeed going in a circle — clockwise around a Low in the Southern Hemisphere..